Five Questions: An NBA Finals Preview!
Well, really four questions and a softball, but who's counting?
My buddy (who recently did well on his MCAT, so everyone give him a telepathic congratulations right now) told me to write an NBA Finals Preview, so I decided to ignore my allergy to talking about current events and go with it. I also figured, with the first game coming up in a few hours, I should at least try to get a prediction in.
It’s been a Cinderella run for Mavs this playoffs. I won’t lie and say I believed in them - I’ve been a non-believer in the Mavs system for so long that it started to cloud my judgement this year, even when they made trades to expand on their versatility and defense. That being said, winning this series is a taller task than the media is making it seem. I feel as though Luka and Co. have become a trendier pick in recent weeks since winning the WCF - and maybe the logic behind that rests in:
“If I thought the Nuggets were going to win the championship, and the Timberwolves beat the Nuggets, and the Mavs beat the Timberwolves, then the Mavs are going to win!”
But any natural basketball intuition would get rid of that notion. So why are so many people who actually watch basketball picking the Mavs to win?
Well, their rim defense has turned a corner after their trades in February (that’s the primary) - and we have (in my opinion) too much sample size to think it’s a fluke. But will their defense hold up against a team with no one to hide against? There are a few matchups that I think we’re gonna see more often than expected.
Here are some things to look out for today.
Will we see a Luka matchup with Porzingis?
The Mavs’ rim defense has been elite this playoffs, and in their matchups with the Clippers and Timberwolves, they were able to hide their big men in the paint, which resulted in lowered driving aggression from the wings and guards on the opponents’ team. Against the Thunder (who are stylistically quite similar to the Celtics), they benefited from rebounding against Holmgren, who looked tired down the end of the series.
To mitigate this, I think Luka is going to be put on Porzingis at times during this series and look to see Lively or Gafford on Jrue Holiday. It’s obvious what makes the Celtics such a force - such an elite drive and kick game makes it a terrible gambit for any opposing team. If Luka can hold up against his former teammate, it might be a tougher first two games for the Celtics than I expected.
However, if Porzingis is ready to go - I can’t say he will or won’t be - I think we’re going to be looking at a blowout.
Can the Mavs bait Tatum?
The benefit of the Celtics’ team attack is obviously their wide versatility against all styles of play - and over a large sample size, that versatility will show up big, resulting in their historic best offensive rating, 37-4 home record, and 64 wins in the regular season. This is a dominant team both on paper and on the court.
They don’t have many flaws, but there have been strategies utilized by certain teams to stop the flow of their offense. I’m expecting to see Dallas try to put Tatum in a box today and cut off his oxygen. It’ll start with P.J. Washington, who Tatum has historically done well against, but look to see Derrick Jones Jr. and Kyrie bait him into midranges, which are comfortable but not optimal for the Celtics star. Tatum has his moments of offensive brilliance more often than not, so the strategy is dependent on gargantuan offensive output on the other end - but this would prevent other Celtics from getting into rhythm early on in the game.
The Js have a bad history of falling into isolation possessions, and we’ve seen that mainly in moments where they’re uncomfortable. If the Mavs can put extreme on-ball pressure on Tatum, his playmaking might not flow.
Check if Tatum takes the bait - if he doesn’t, the Celtics are in good position to hammer the Mavs at home.
Are we discounting one of the greatest Point of Attack defenders ever?
It feels like it’s been pre-ordained that Luka will crush the Celtics in individual output this series - maybe because of his heavy production against Jaden McDaniels. But Jaden McDaniels is a different defender than Jrue Holiday. It’s hard to speak on who is better overall at the moment, and that’s a key part of the playoffs that people fundamentally misunderstand. The regular season is a test of overall output - “Can this player play at an all-defense level for 80% of his games?”.
Jrue is a better defender for Doncic than McDaniels is - he’s more in the Lu Dort category - and even if Luka is scoring, it won’t be easy. Look to see physical plays between the two early on - and a lot of clips of Luka glaring at the refs.
Luka has called Jrue one of his three hardest one-on-one matchups (he also said Derrick Jones Jr, so good thing they’re on the same team), and it’s not hard to see why. Players that carry a heavy offensive load tend to struggle against Holiday, because he’s simply one of the greatest POA defenders we’ve ever seen. His off-ball defense leaves something to be desired at times, but good thing Luka won’t trouble him with that.
Would this be the most surprising championship run of the last 30 years?
Arguably so. There have been bigger upsets in the Finals - the Pistons opened up +500(!!!!) against the Lakers in their grind-it-out effort in 2004, and a few other teams have been less favored prior to the Finals, but there haven’t been that many teams that people didn’t believe in going into the playoffs. There wasn’t even general consensus on whether the Mavs would beat the Clippers in the first round (Kawhi’s health had a lot to do with it), and it feels like they’ve been underdogs in both series since then. In addition, they’d have the lowest number of wins of any Finals team since…the Houston Rockets in 1995.
Since those Rockets were coasting through the regular season after winning the championship a year prior and these Mavs didn’t even make the play-in last year, the question has to be asked - is this the most surprising Finals run ever?
Some might argue the Mavs in 2011, the 2021 Bucks(!), or maybe even the 2019 Raptors. I think though, all those teams had emerged as favorites in their respective conferences by the time they had reached the Conference Finals - so to answer, yes this is the most surprising run by my own assessment.
Who do you think is going to win?
Sorry to Luka Magic, but I have Boston in 6 (this is usually the number people say when they have no idea how many games it will take). I feel as though a lot of the question marks towards the Celtics has been media narratives and maybe general boredom with the East, but I think this is finally the year they hoist banner 18.
Some cool things are coming soon (hopefully next week) - and I hope to have some more analytics oriented blogs up soon, so hopefully you’re excited. Drop a sub if you’re enjoying the content and leave a comment if you have any suggestions!