Analytical Mailbag: Paolo's Plus/Minus
For my next trick, I am going to wipe away a player's on/off using on/off. I'm really playing into the whole Magic thing.
Hey TZM,
Why is Paolo’s +/- relatively so low? Is he not an impactful player?
Thanks for the question! Paolo’s advanced metrics have become a topic of discussion lately, and this type of probing is philosophically important for anyone trying to better utilize numbers in understanding basketball. Here’s some of the latest discourse I’ve seen on Paolo.
This tweet tries to make some convoluted point about Paolo being below-average and clearly misses the mark. This is my least favorite type of tweet: “You evaluated x player the wrong way, so why aren't you all evaluating y player the wrong way as well?” Why don’t we just evaluate Paolo the right way?
Plus-minus, like a box score stat, is a signal - not an indictment of a player’s overall ability. Paolo’s relatively poor plus-minus suggests that there is something clunky about either him or the Orlando Magic as a whole.
Just looking at the crudest on-off - not even accounting for other players in the same lineup as Paolo - it’s very easy (and convenient) to say the Magic are better when he is on the bench. But can that really be the case?
Peering into this further, I can attach other players to see what might be going on. Adding Paolo’s co-star Franz Wagner into the mix gives us a slightly better explanation for the numbers. The offensive rating is mediocre with both on the floor, and has a large increase with only one. The defensive rating, on the other hand, suffers with just Paolo. Given the multitude of strong Magic defenders, why is Paolo not finding better footing on that end without Franz?
I decided to use Jonathan Isaac, who is notably one of the league leaders in plus-minus and a fearsome rim protector, as a test case. I checked to see if Paolo and Jonathan Isaac have trouble together. When Paolo plays with Isaac, the defensive rating holds at a solid 107.20.
However, they only played a handful of minutes together this season, and checking this against Paolo’s play with Wendell Carter Jr. (not a great rim protector), it checks out. Paolo unsurprisingly struggles without a rim protector on the floor - and the Magic, despite having an overall great defense, don’t have enough rim protection to help Paolo out when he’s playing within weaker lineups.
Given Orlando’s lack of rim protectors (besides Isaac) who can space the floor, this puts strain on the lineups which Paolo can play in. And between his weekly appearances on the Daily Wire and an ACL tear every other season, it’s unlikely we’ll ever see Jonathan Isaac in a consistent, expanded role.
This might be due to Paolo not playing off the ball, as demonstrated through his play type distribution. His cuts and spot ups are virtually non-existent in comparison to his pick and roll ball handling and isolation possessions.
Paolo and Franz’s overlap in their pick and roll ball handling is where the issue lies - with neither being rollers or good enough spread shooters to be involved in the play as non-ball handlers. Franz at least demonstrates the tendency to spot up (perhaps as a necessity), but Paolo practically never does. This leads to isolations, and Paolo’s designation as the “top dog” has given him priority in this hierarchy. While the Magic fought (and ultimately lost) valiantly against the Cavaliers in the playoffs, there are some structural changes that need fixing before they’re ready to take a true next step.
So what are the fixes? Rather than swinging for more general “shooting” in the form of KCP, the Magic could’ve opted for a rim protector who can space the floor. Brook Lopez and Kristaps Porziņģis come to mind, even for a high price. Luckily for the Magic, they have enough young talent deeper in their depth charts to justify a move like that.
What am I listening to?
Listened to some Japanese folk music this week. Someone might recognize this one from Naruto.
Great breakdown of the situation in Orlando around Paolo Banchero. It's interesting to think about how blameworthy a player should be for some contextual outcomes. You point quite out a handful of Banchero's limitations: he struggles without a rim protector, he doesn't play off the ball with cuts or spot ups, and he's not a good roller or a good spread shooter.
Those are all problems, and even if there are many hypothetical rosters that would work around all of those comfortably, in my opinion players should bear a bit of the blame for their weaknesses being hard to work around. It might feel odd to penalize a player for having an awkward roster around them, but on the flip side we should certainly credit players who have diverse enough skills to be clear net positives regardless of roster.
Thanks for pointing out the Isaac on/off splits. I am a big baseball fan, and a big proponent of analytics. However, while I enjoy the one number impact metrics (EPM, LEBRON, Darko, etc.), I hate when people use them as pure barometers of good and bad in the sport.
Clearly, Paolo is a flawed player who likely needs to improve his off ball game, but the impact metrics implying that he is terrible and Franz is some kind of god leads to some crazy biases on basketball twitter that are unfounded.
The magic would have almost zero offensive creation without Paolo and as you say, suffer from a lack of rim protection and spacing (it’s usually an either or with them)