Chet Holmgren's Offensive Upside and Thinking About What 'Big' Means
What makes a unicorn effective?
With a slender build, long arms, and a gaunt face, Chet Holmgren is one of the oddest creations from the Basketball Factory in a long-time. He’s drawn facial comparisons to Abraham Lincoln - but I liken him more to a Tim Burton character, animated to perfection.
I have been a fan of Chet since his high school days, when he saw fame for crossing up Steph Curry at Curry’s own select basketball camp. His polish at such a young age, and at 7’1” was a revelation for me.
When I was 12, Kristaps Porzingis was drafted to the Knicks and despite initially being booed, gained the favor of Knicks fans - and was dubbed by Kevin Durant as ‘The Unicorn’. The nickname was reason for laughter back then - but a perfect way to describe Kristaps’ fluidity for his size. Although Kristaps didn’t fully pan out, and operates more as a traditional big now - his potential served as a cornerstone for basketball development today.
I guess it’s important for me to define what a true ‘Unicorn’ is. ‘Unicorns’ need to have the fluidity to be played as a wing, not just have guard or wing skills. Nikola Jokic is not a ‘unicorn’. He’s more like a hippo than anything. Joel Embiid, on the other hand, could be one, but there’s not enough of a sample size. Nowadays, ‘Unicorns’ like Chet and Wemby are more widely understood, even if still uncommon. How did we get here?
What does ‘Big’ Mean?
I wrote an article about the Suns and Rockets - and the philosophy of ‘Small Ball’ and where it came from. Small Ball was certainly an innovation, and the extension of it, Micro Ball, was an extreme version of it. But there’s an important piece of basketball philosophy that the title ‘Small Ball’ misses. Those lineups were not effective because they were small, they were still effective in spite of it.
In a game like basketball, intuition is correct when it tells us that height is a very important factor. Generally speaking, big beats small - but there is a skill tradeoff. A team of five 7’3 unskilled players will have trouble against a team of decently skilled 6’7 wings.
Maybe it’s because basketball development in America has typically led to the taller players learning to play a certain style - the taller you are, the closer you would get to the basket on offense. And there are some biomechanics that go along with being taller - we’ve seen that taller players have more trouble staying with smaller players laterally, which makes it difficult to switch on defense. But when the Basketball Factory made Chet Holmgren, they chose a spunky combination of skills wrapped up in this skinny 7’1” frame.
Breakdown:
The trade-off that Small Ball created was the lack of rim protection. But what happens if we just get rid of that cost? Holmgren’s skill allows him to function as a wing on offense and a five on defense - with DPOY level results to back it up. Chet’s ability in this role allow key actions to be run through him as a ball-handler and screener.
While his screening is not super effective yet - ranking near the bottom of screen assists - Holmgren is able to cleverly contort his body often in plays like the one above. In some of these slip screen plays, which Mark Daigneault loves to run, Holmgren is able to easily navigate through because of his limber frame.
The Thunder run a very unique offense, relying on both traditional and inverted actions to extract the best versions of their players - and with better fitted personnel this upcoming season, Holmgren’s weaknesses could be mitigated.
But moreso than just decreasing Holmgren’s weaknesses, I think playing him even more in these “smaller” actions will allow him to run a two-man game with Isaiah Hartenstein - a much more beefed up version of the one he had with Timme a couple years ago. The answer to optimize Holmgren is to make him play smaller and demand more from him.
Fans (including myself) were quick to draw comparisons between Wemby and Chet given their resemblance in size - but Wemby’s extra height allows him to play more as an off-ball lob threat buzzing around like Stephen Curry, while Holmgren does less of that.
His ball-handling and shooting are remarkable for his size, and that allows him to unlock some more key actions off of screens. After setting screens, he can choose to attack closeouts or spray threes, while most bigs would have to choose one, limiting their upside. Essentially, he’s a stretch five with the DLC mode unlocked - which then makes me believe he’s just a much taller wing.
Chet’s most important swing skill is his self-creation, which definitely has the raw foundation to be great. As mentioned before, his ball-handling is impressive, which gives him the ability to create mismatches on both bigger and smaller players. In the below clip he demonstrates a mid-post game, which he showed improvement in throughout the season.
In the above clip, he takes Porzingis (who moves well laterally in the clip) off the bounce and finishes at the basket well.
While Holmgren’s efficiency playing within the flow of the offense was impressive, an improvement as a self-creator would not only give the Thunder another legitimate weapon but would force teams to switch their coverage - which makes it easier for their other very good players to find offense.
When assessing Holmgren two years ago, a common (and misjudged) critique of him from casual observers was about his frame and ability to guard larger players, like Giannis or Embiid. But that philosophy was and is still too rigid to assess a player like Chet.
With Stretch Armstrong arms and quick lateral movement, Chet is a more switchable and versatile defender than the ones suited to guard a player like Giannis or Embiid. In short, yes, he can’t guard Giannis or Embiid - but even if a player could, they wouldn’t be able to do the things Chet can.
I don’t want to define Holmgren (or Wemby) as a new archetype of player - they’re not - and trying to create one from scratch (see Alex Sarr) is likely a recipe for disaster. But the value proposition they bring is tough to pass up. Simply put, when it comes to Holmgren, we’re looking at one of the most skilled and unique talents to ever play the game.