It’s Deer Season in Indy.
Maybe I could've gone for a roadkill pun.
The East has some subtly good matchups, but also the subtly boring - the Celtics-Magic series looks to be fun, but ultimately, not significant - and this Cavs-Heat series seems like it happens every year even though these two teams have never played each other in the playoffs.
The two series I’ve looked at the most in the East are Bucks-Pacers, which has looked like a bloodbath thus far, and Knicks-Pistons, which has gone the way of the Pistons thus far - even if it sits at 1-1.
I’ll take a look at the former series today - Knicks-Pistons deserves a longer article - and the Pacers have found some interesting ways to really exploit the Bucks’ utter lack of even neutral defensive coverages.
Is there a coverage that can work?
This seems to be the broader question that I need to preface this article with. For one, I think the answer is no. I picked Indiana in five prior to the series, and right now, I still lean closer to a sweep than it going to six or seven games.
The start of Game 2 was similar to most of Game 1, with Haliburton and Siakam attacking Brook Lopez in drop coverage and either forcing help or find ways to score around the basket.
This often meant leaving Aaron Nesmith, who is likely the worst shooter on the floor for the Pacers, open - even though that means nothing. Nesmith shot around 43% this season on roughly 4 attempts per game.
On the first play, Giannis doesn’t want a repeat of the previous possession - especially because he’s matched with Myles Turner, who went 4-6 in the Game 1 win on Saturday. But this spells doom for the Bucks. Lopez is stretched too far out to cheat, the Pacers average the third fewest turnovers per game and move the ball the most in the league by far, and they find almost all advantages on a possession they can. Then, on the following play, Lopez gets put into drop, Haliburton makes quick work and the Pacers get another open three.
A lot of the “casual” perception with Giannis is that he’s still an elite defensive player. This isn’t necessarily true anymore; a lot of his contest metrics suggest he isn’t the backline rim protector he used to be. Some of that might be linked to Lopez aging - when Lopez was able to stay in front of smaller players better in drop, Giannis was able to provide much more secondary rim protection.
Giannis, like many all-time-great players, often gets the benefit of the doubt for too long. Maybe it’s getting over the hump in 2021, or his great 2022 series vs. the Celtics, but he hasn’t been THAT player in too long. And without the strong perimeter defense of Jrue and Khris Middleton in front of him, or a better primary drop defender, his defensive impact is muted.
3 minutes into the first quarter, the Bucks opted for a 2-3 zone - a move made to reduce backdoor cuts, even if it makes zero sense against a Pacers team that has players with games specifically tailored to break it.
Siakam immediately finds his space at the free throw line, which even opens up space for a Nesmith backcut before Spicy P decides to just can it instead.
The second quarter was a little more encouraging for the Bucks after they switched their coverage AGAIN - this time opting for a “medium-ball” lineup centered around Giannis and Portis. Portis has played well thus far, hitting all types of shots and forcing the Pacers to shift their coverage to fit the Bucks’ newfound geometry. But is it sustainable? Portis is an okay to good, but not great, shooter and scorer.
This lineup also had better balance around the rim, even if it meant leaving some of their weaker defenders on an island against the Pacers rim penetration and skip passes, both of which McConnell has been doing well this series.
The concept of 5-out (see below) seems simple - but is run less frequently than the average basketball fan thinks. There are a few reasons for this - the prevalence of really good motion skip passers is small, and most teams don’t have the defensive personnel to play five shooters. The Pacers manage to pass by in the latter department, and their offense looks supercharged. In the play above, you can see how AJ Green is stretched - KPJ is not a good matchup on McConnell and neither Giannis nor Gary Trent Jr. can cheat off Siakam or Mathurin, respectively.
Finally, with the starters back on the floor - the Bucks settled more into a man-zone hybrid. The picture below, along with the arrows and question marks, represent some of my confusion - although some of my misunderstanding might be personnel related.
The possession confused me for various reasons, and then (unfortunately, I don’t have the full video) broke down for the Bucks after Haliburton got switched directly onto Lopez and Prince got aggressive on the closeout.
I thought besides just taking Lopez or other switches, the Pacers stood out in their off ball sets, setting a lot of effective flare screens for Haliburton, and even running this wiper action for Mathurin which I saw in their matchup against the Cavs.
It isn’t all sunshine for the Pacers though.
They’re 10-5 when their opponent grabs eight or fewer offensive rebounds. I note how important defensive rebounding is for their offensive performance in my Rebounding Thresholds article. Last game, the Bucks had 12 offensive rebounds. Dame’s addition makes it harder for the Pacers to crash the boards, start fastbreaks, and keep the Bucks from getting second chance points.In the Game 1 blowout, the Pacers scored twenty-two fastbreak points to the Bucks’ five. This last game, they only had four fastbreak points.
Is this the year for the Pacers?
Ultimately, the real question is the Pacers’ ceiling: can they legitimately challenge Cleveland or Boston, or will they become one of those entertaining teams we fondly recall in eight or nine years—like the 2007 Jazz or 2013 Grizzlies—teams with a clear identity but too many structural flaws to ever get over the hump?
My baseline instinct says they can - Haliburton isn’t Steve Nash in that he isn’t the ultimate initiator, and he might always be a connective player. But connective pieces can be great, and I don’t want to let aesthetic biases cloud my judgement on an otherwise fantastic player. They might be a piece away, but there is a clear flow to this team, and their defensive improvement has genuinely surprised me.
The greater question does remain on their defense. Is the ceiling good? Great? I thought their defensive performance at Cleveland earlier in the season was inspiring. Mathurin, Jarace Walker, and Siakam made heady defensive plays by fighting through screens and staying attached to the rim. It’s important they play with composure and make sure their weak side players stay glued to the rim against Cleveland in pick and roll- otherwise, they’ll be punished.
All in all though, I’m excited for this team - I’ve been keeping up with them for the better part of the season and will be rooting for them in the future.
When you wrote “in the future”, not many people thought that would include this June!