James Harden Does a 360°
A brief look into his evolution.
I have often expressed a certain disregard for ball dominant, heliocentric guards - maybe because I dislike the ceiling of a team with those players, or maybe its just personal preference. The rigidity of those players has always drawn my ire - I’ve emphasized at different points that heliocentric guards cannot be combined with other stars optimally.
The pinnacle of heliocentric guards was, of course, James Harden. During the peak of his tenure with Houston, the Beard was the definition of ball-dominant, posting a usage rate of 40.3(!!!) in 2018-19, which is the second highest in the history of the NBA. The bulk of his possessions that season came in isolation as well, where he posted his highest time per possession in his career.
Normally, ball-dominant guards have trouble adjusting as they age. Father Time is harsh - as a player ages, their ability to get to the basket gets more difficult, which decreases their efficiency on the ball. Harden isn’t an exception to this. His points per touch have decreased dramatically since his time in Houston - part of sharing the court with superstars and becoming older.
No one should expect Harden to be his old self - not many players can sustain dominance on ball after their early 30s. But is Harden bound to the same fate as others, like his three-time teammate Russell Westbrook? Or does he have the juice to play impactful minutes even if less efficient as a scorer?
Looking at Harden’s 2023-24 season by play distribution, it’s a stark contrast from the version of him we saw four years ago. While his isolation percentage is still relatively high now, it’s clear he has started to rely on the pick and roll, probably a function of the personnel around him. In 2019-20, the Rockets leaned into MicroBall, allowing Harden to play to his fullest and kick out to shooters if necessary. This increased his isolation percentages dramatically. Since then, he has been playing with a variety of different archetypes - this year, playing through the pick and roll with Ivica Zubac.
Harden’s pick and roll usage has been sky high since leaving the Rockets in general, even without a good roll man in Brooklyn. How did the Nets have faith that Harden would be able to make the switch so easily?
One can recall that Harden’s first ascent to stardom did not come as a result of playing isolation ball. Unfortunately, there is no playtype data publicly available before the 2015-16 season - but based on his time of possession during the 2014-15 season, it is clear that Harden played a more stylistically similar offense to the one he’s trotting out now as a member of the Clippers. Harden’s evolution, so it seems, has led him back to his early roots as a pick and roll savant. Comparing his 2023-24 season to another one, it seems the 2016-17 season, his first year with D’Antoni, was most similar to now.
It’s not often we see players mold so easily into new offenses. Maybe that’s why Harden feels like he’s at liberty to ask for trades so often. It reminds me of this Bruce Lee quote.
So what trends can be observed about Harden’s play? It looks like his spot ups are increasing dramatically with age, a trend we see in a lot of players over time. His isolation percentage, as expected, continues to tumble.
So, while I still express some contempt for ball-dominant guards, it’s clear that Harden has the ability to adapt to the players around him. Maybe they’re not so rigid after all. How does he compare to Luka Dončić, a player often likened to Harden?
Luka’s pick and roll usage has been decreasing in recent years. In 2019-20, Luka posted an isolation percentage of roughly 15%, with a pick and roll usage of 46.3%. Since then, he has gradually started to up his isolations. A factor in this might be team defense - both the 2010s Rockets and current Mavs have started to bring in strong defenders, some of whom struggle as shooters. The tradeoff has been made, and arguably translated to more success.
Harden’s evolution has been subtle behind all of the drama surrounding his name in recent years. He’s long been derided as rigid and a team chemistry nightmare, but under the lense, perhaps he’s been figuring out a new style of play.