Nikola Topić, who at this point remains the international man of mystery in this draft class, quietly dominated overseas in the Adriatic League, for KK Mega Basket, a team he was loaned to from Red Star. He averaged 18.6 PPG and 6.9 APG (among the league leaders in both categories). The Adriatic League is still not widely recognizable - but to offer some context, another really good Serbian whose name is two letters away from this one won the MVP of the league in 2015, his “gap year”, before joining the Nuggets in 2016. This type of production from Topić is extraordinary, but under the microscope, there are a lot of areas for improvement and some major question marks about some of the skills which may translate into a role in the NBA.
Strengths:
Nikola Topić is my favorite prospect in this draft, but has also been the most difficult one to scout. The general stigma around international prospects is that they rely on skill as a threshold to be impactful players at the next level. Topić is very much not in that camp. He is a tremendous downhill athlete - he is a blur both in the half-court and in transition. Look at this clip. He moves down the length of the court in roughly 3 seconds.
There are questions(which I will go into further), about his versatility as a scorer - but that is the tougher part about assessing prospects in a competitive setting. Constant slashing works for Topić at this level very efficiently, so he hasn’t really had to demonstrate much midrange game. The most consistent part of his game comes from breaking down his defenders with his first step and slashing towards the basket. He has good finishing around the basket, and is adept with both hands, but there are some questions about his touch.
The major draw of Nikola Topić’s game thus far has been his passing both in transition and the pick and roll. The downhill speed referenced above makes him a constant threat in transition, and he has shown himself to be a surveyor in the open court. The clip below shows the pressure he puts on defenders in transition.
I also enjoy his playmaking out of the pick and roll. He does have moments where it seems like he anticipates the pass before doing a mental map for other options, but given his status as the youngest player in the class this year, I cut him some slack. In this clip(timestamp 0:22), he makes an advanced skip pass for a player his age.
In addition, he has shown himself to be a good reader out of the pick and roll. It’s not terribly uncommon to find good pick and roll players at this level, but Topić has the necessary other skills to make it really ‘pop’ in the NBA.
I think if there is going to be a skill that bridges that gap between him and competing in the NBA, it will be his passing. In a good system, where options are easily readable, Topić will thrive.
Finally, Topić has flashed some good and bad signs as a shooter. He does not currently shoot the ball well at all, but he is 87% from the free throw line with decent volume. The general trend is that players with good free throw percentages indicate good touch in general - which then means their outside shot can be worked on in the long run. His mechanics are a bit off - he has inconsistent footwork when it comes to pulling up from three, and I suspect part of that might be from indecision. Topić knows he can beat practically anyone off the dribble - so he relies on that the wide majority of the time. He shoots roughly 28% from three point land both off the catch and on pull-ups.
I do have some questions about his touch. On his floaters and practically any setting where he tries to slow down, he looks a little bit flustered and does not always find consistency in that area. I think that can be worked on within a team with good spacing.
Weaknesses:
His shooting, as I mentioned before, does appear to be a bit of a weakness, not in the sense that he will never improve, but rather in terms of his aggression. Topić is only a willing shooter as a last resort, when he realizes there are not as many playmaking options nor driving options.
This has shown to be critical in his lack of a midrange game - he is not a 1-2-3 scorer, really a 1- kinda 3 scorer who is unwilling to take any pull-ups off the dribble within the arc. This makes him tough to assess - it’s important to keep defenders honest so that they don’t anticipate all of your game - but thus far, the constant rim pressure has worked for him. I do think he needs to work on being comfortable within the arc as it will be critical to maintain energy for the other area that I need to talk about.
His man-to-man defense has been terrible, in almost every way. He has bad lateral quickness and often resorts to fouling when he gets blown by(which has resulted in a bad foul rate and lack of positioning for rebounding). This clip is on the offensive end, but it demonstrates a lack of awareness when it comes to boxing out. He stands around without any willingness to box out the defender who eventually gets the rebound.
In addition, his defensive awareness has been iffy. There are flashes of good reads(interestingly, I’ve seen them more with Red Star) and more often than not, bad ones. I wonder if he elevates his defensive effort with less of an offensive burden?
His swing skill will be his shooting, but the defense will have to at least somewhat improve if he hopes to be a long-term point guard rather than just a reserve.
Intangibles:
In the past, I used to not really consider intangibles as part of my scouting process, and I still consider them only a minor part of assessing a player - but past players (Josh Jackson!!) have burned me for that - so I try to at least give some thought. Nikola Topić could have sat out the season after being loaned back to Red Star - he had already solidified his position as the best point guard in the class. If anything, returning after his injury has only given teams more question marks about his readiness for the NBA. However, I respect the competitive fire and I believe in basketball karma.
“We didn't talk about the role I'll play. Whatever he says I'll do. If he says to die on the court, I will die. Whatever coach needs, I'll try my best to do it...My dream for many years has been to play for Red Star. I grew up a fan of this club. It will mean everything for me to play in front of 20,000 Red Star fans. I couldn't say no to playing basketball in the EuroLeague… It's a huge risk, but I'm ready. I'm confident in myself 100%. My father, my agent Misko Raznatovic and I understand that this move could affect my draft chances if I don't do well. But I'm ready to compete and fight." - Topic
I do think Topić has flashed competitiveness and production far beyond his age. I value that in a prospect, and I think he will succeed in the league as a point guard for years to come.
Outlook:
Topić is an upside bet - not one with raw athleticism, but rather a couple of superb skills, that if combined with improvement in shooting, could be a perennial all-star. Predicting a player’s improvement has more to do with the organization drafting them and their situation. As of now, he is mocked on most drafts to go just outside of the top three, and I think the San Antonio Spurs would do well to nab him there. He fits well as a pick and roll threat next to Wemby and would benefit from the defensive clean-up in that system. Good coaching and sets will give Topić a place to thrive.
He is currently ranked #1 on my big board.
I have seen a lot of Luka Dončić comparisons - I don’t agree. A couple of his passes out of his drives have reminded me of a younger Dončić, but Topić’s distinguishing skill has been his finishing and speed to the basket. It reminds me more of Goran Dragić, who has also been a popular comparison. Dragić was much more adept with slowing down his pace and using hook shots and fallaways though, so this is a higher upside comparison. Apologies for the international comparison - I know that’s common for European guys.
I see Ish Smith as his floor - Smith never learned to shoot so well, but he was tremendously fast. A bigger Ish Smith might have been a more solid starter, so that’s not bad as far as comparisons go.
The Spurs’ Dilemma: What to Do When You’re Ahead of Schedule?
I have been a constant in Spurs’ Twitter(X?) spaces in the last two months, and a topic of frequent discussion has been what they should do with their abundance of draft equity. Trae Young has been a name floated for the majority of the season - and a lot of fans are eager to swing for the fences and pair Wemby with the Hawks point guard. I am less eager, to say the least. It’s not that I think Trae and Wemby are a bad fit - I do think they both can do good for each others’ game. I have some concerns with the long-term plan from this.
What happens to Sochan? Can Sochan be a valuable player on a contending team? He certainly can play defense, but will he be left on an island as an offensive threat? I wonder if accelerating this timeline will not do good for Sochan’s development as a player. He needs minutes to develop feel for offense.
In addition, will the Spurs be a threat to win the championship? Even with Trae, I don’t see how they would compete with the Nuggets, Wolves, or Thunder. I think an important part of being a sports fan is being comfortable with the years(many years, as it will be for the Spurs) of losing. There’s no good that comes out of rushing before your team has an identity.
When I was in the spaces, an important point that some fans made was about the teams currently competing. The Mavs, Pacers, Nuggets, Timberwolves and Celtics all made trades to get to where they were. But I think that argument is weak, for many reasons. The Pacers likely cap out at this stage - and I would be very surprised if they won the championship. As for the Mavs, Nuggets, Timberwolves, and Celtics - those teams had identities before swinging for the fences. The players had been exposed to winning cultures and had little friction in dictating what roles each of the players would play. As for the Spurs, this is a team with not much identity outside of Wemby. I think giving them a year to develop, with two rookies and a young core, would do wonders for their confidence and also their identity. Trae is a great player - I value his playmaking - but he would put this team in pressure mode, and I’m not sure if that’s what they need right now. The Spurs have been openly slow-pace about this rebuild, and while it may be frustrating for fans, I think this will lead to long-term success and potentially a dynasty.
I hope to get more of these profiles out soon. Give me any suggestions or ideas for player profiles, retrospectives, or anything NBA related!