So… What Is Cooper Flagg?
Some musings on the most malleable prospect I've ever evaluated.
Draft analysis is finicky. We are essentially trying to peer into the unknown with whatever principles we have developed over the years, to make predictions on teenagers - most of whom aren’t old enough to purchase a beer. I intro’d with this a bit in my last article - as a 19 year old, I was convinced I was going to become a lawyer - and three years later I’m working in basketball analytics/scouting. So, yes, life is unpredictable, and draft analysis is weird and tiring - but not without reward. It’s quite fulfilling to ascertain basketball “truths” and use these “truths” to keep analyzing this beautiful game.
Until May, most NBA watchers ignore the draft cycle altogether, when the fans of the worst fourteen teams start to hear more about some of the emerging talents in college and overseas. For people who are involved in draft analysis - especially at the level I have been this year - we understand that the cycle moves at rapid pace, and we also start gaining an appreciation for those surprisingly rare players whose presence consistently results in more points for his team and less points for the other team.
I mentioned in my podcast episode with Ahmed Jama (who, by the way, was a wonderful guest and is an even better scout/analyst) that I felt there was no point in doing TOO much discussion on Cooper Flagg. Most discussion of his “flaws” would enter the area of nitpicking - and that would be detrimental to our analysis throughout the cycle. But now, with his destination set, some formal analysis feels necessary - especially because he’s the most interesting prospect I’ve evaluated in all the years I’ve followed the draft.
I think the question I receive most often pertaining to Flagg are about his NBA comparisons. I try to be conservative in my estimates. I think his median outcome offensively is Franz Wagner with a jumpshot, and his median outcome defensively is Andrei Kirilenko (I hate that I just named two white guys, but oh well). Maybe that sounds a bit underwhelming (those players combined for a total of one All-Star appearance) - but the rest of this article will summarize just how good a player like that would be.
The most impressive trait of Flagg’s is his age - he’s roughly the same age LeBron was around the time of the 2003 draft - and is the youngest player in his class. He should’ve been playing in high school this year if not for his reclassification and still looked as polished as the best upperclassmen in the sport by the midpoint of the college season.
Offensively, Flagg has such a wide array of actions as an initiator, connector, and play finisher that he is a tantalizing piece no matter what team would’ve landed him. His upside isn’t boxed into buckets like “heliocentric” or “isolation scorer” even if he would thrive in those systems. Rather, he is apt to play in between the lines of other initiators and play finishers.
That last sentence is subtly very important in the context of both Flagg and basketball principles. I say Flagg can play “in between the lines” when that is on its own a very rare archetype of player. Rarely are players versatile enough to fit in any scheme and morph in between different actions, both as the initiator, connector, and play finisher. While the media is eager to label many players that way - Tatum, Paul George, Kawhi Leonard - none of them were truly as versatile as prospects as Flagg is. Flagg’s proficiency as a scorer and passer in these actions is what opens up his malleability, and while he may be best suited for a secondary role, that doesn’t mean he’s any less of a player than your typical primary. Rather, the supercharge he’ll give any lineup where he can be a Play-Doh basketball player will be gigantic.
His proficiency as a scorer skyrocketed after a rough few games to start the season. In half-court sets, Flagg demonstrated elite shoulder work, with great touch in the short midrange, and found success as a creator in the pick and roll.
You can see the shape of Flagg’s scoring in the above two clips. He prods often with his shoulders and lower back, waiting for his defender to bite, at which point he overpowers with his strength and finesses towards the basket. He has a ton of counters, all of which don’t exactly translate well yet, but give me confidence he will be a plus scorer in the future.
In the below read, you can see how quickly Flagg understands the tilt of the defense - whipping a pass over to Proctor when most players his age would dribble a bit more hoping to find the lob for Maluach (which wouldn’t be there). It speaks to his intuition - he’s rarely out of place or idling - even while playing at his own pace, most of his actions as a player are crisp and intentional.
This deliberate, prodding nature unlocks a lot of his scoring, both on the perimeter and near the basket. He seeks out mismatches methodically, even if his self-creation isn’t quite at the level yet.
He gets low to the floor here - and if his off dribble jumpers improve (around 36% this year), he will unlock even more rim pressure.
His isolation did lag behind this year, scoring only 0.511 PPP in that playtype. A large portion of this is due to his handle being somewhat choppy and loose. While it improved over the course of the season, it did cap some of the ways he could enter his more comfortable actions, like posting up.
The flashes of it look fantastic though. Flagg has a herky jerky rhythm that pairs well with his strength.
While Flagg’s handle is somewhat loose, his strength is certainly impressive for his age, allowing him to play through contact and be physical near the rim. He had 1.17 PPP around the rim this year, and generated massive rim pressure. A little cherrypicked BartTorvik query shows just how unique Flagg was this year. Never has a college player as big, athletic, and strong as Flagg been as smooth on the perimeter either (but at the same time, don’t put too much weight into the query).
He did exceptionally well attacking a tilted defense - and with the play finishers in blue this year (Proctor, Knueppel, Maluach, James, etc.), he was able to sniff out and actualize a ton of advantages.
As a passer, Flagg looked significantly more impressive than most expected -even though most of his development as a playmaker really came about in high school. When I scouted Khaman Maluach, I noted that his lob finishing (23/24) was among the best of center prospects in the 21st century. Some of that has to be attributed to Flagg, who is a devastating weapon in the short roll and processes the game remarkably well from all angles, both near the elbow and in the traditional short roll near the free throw line.
I found that his playmaking seemed better off catches/rolls rather than out of any isolation or self-created action. This is likely due to some gaps in his physicality/handle but also due to the variety of coverages he faced this season as self-creator. Some teams looked to take Flagg’s shoulders out of the game by placing a help defender behind the ball so he couldn’t spin. Others looked to limit the angles at which he could get to the basket by putting pressure on his handle. But in the moments where the advantage was already created, Flagg thrived, and his processing followed suit.
His assist to turnover ratio was remarkable this year, a stellar 2.0, which looks even better paired with a very high usage rate. Flagg has a great understanding of his own gravity, recognizing the situations where he poses the most threat. When he’s in the pocket of the short roll
As an off-ball weapon, Flagg developed throughout the season - pairing a good shot with his already developed play as a cutter off the ball.
I don’t expect Flagg to be an immediately good shooter but he certainly has all the indicators - touch around the basket, free throw percentage, 3PA, 3P%, etc - I would be shocked if he isn’t a good shooter at the next level in the medium term.
As for his cutting, he is a brilliant reader of advantages and understands preemptively how to move off the ball. His scoring off these reps will allow him to hook into consistent high leverage minutes as the Mavericks push for a top seed next year.
Patience is important for fans who have seen Flagg on House Of Highlights all year long but haven’t tuned into a full game of his. I am certain he will be a positive NBA player almost immediately (besides probably a few rough games at the start of his career), but he won’t be the same creator he was at Duke in the short-term. More important is that Flagg’s game is not at all predicated on flash, save for the occasional brutish dunk. He won’t be a fan favorite for his style of play, but he will be highly effective in modern impact metrics. My guess is that he’s top 50 in EPM (estimated plus minus) by the end of next season.
As Flagg starts to weave the looser components into his game, like his handle and occasionally impatient reads as a passer, he will look more the part of an elite player.
Defensively, Flagg projects as a versatile big wing similar to an Andrei Kirilenko (as mentioned above). I do think Flagg has become a bit overrated on defense - partially due to the aesthetics of his game. In high school, he was a terrifying help side and chase down shot blocker - while in college, he has looked measured and consistent. It seems Jon Scheyer’s systematic man coverage played to some of Flagg’s underutilized strengths.
Flagg has terrific anticipation both at the rim but also at the low post, denying entry passes and playing physical to bother bigger players from establishing position. In the below play, you can see how patient Flagg is, waiting for the pass to be thrown before he re-establishes himself behind his opponent.
Flagg played well off the primary protection this year, understanding when rim attempts were being forced and when a player was trapped. He should have similar areas of focus on the Mavericks, playing off Anthony Davis.
Flagg was stellar in rotations all year, inhibiting pick and roll actions by tagging rollers and recovering to shooters. I thought this was an much impressive after his high school career, where he would gamble by playing up on rollers more often.
I think a major area of improvement is Flagg’s on-ball defense. He isn’t an elite one yet, although he is a clear value add in that area regardless. He can absorb a lot of punishment from stronger on-ball initiators, but his lateral quickness can sometimes lack. He tested well at the combine in lane agility - but I don’t put too much stock into those measurements - if I did, I would have to ignore a lot of tape from this season.
All in all, he should be an impactful defender upon impact and is in a good spot to improve on his weaknesses. I would expect Flagg to be a perennial All-Defensive team candidate during his career.
For what it’s worth, Flagg landing in Dallas bodes well for him in the short term. I was disappointed as a Spurs fan (for a moment, I thought a Flagg/Wemby pairing was really going to happen), but it is a particularly great spot for him - Klay/Kyrie will be good off-ball targets, similar to a Proctor or Knueppel, and Davis will be a good short roll lob threat for Flagg. The additional perimeter defense (PJ Washington, Max Christie) should give Flagg a lot of leeway to play to his strengths as a free safety and weak side shot blocker.
Flagg is so malleable, moreso than any #1 pick I can remember, that he borders on ambiguous for untrained basketball eyes. He has a very safe floor as an All-Star level player. If he improves on some of the swing skills I talked about above (P.O.A. defense, handle) - he will enter All-NBA First Team discussions. While we don’t really know what he’ll become (and that’s part of the fun) - I can confidently predict he will be a cornerstone for the Mavericks in long term.
There shouldn’t be any debate at the top this year - Flagg IS the best prospect in this class. He leads every advanced metric, is a year younger than most freshmen, and led the best team in college basketball (maybe some can debate me on this). What we can discuss is where he ranks relative to other great prospects - by my estimation, he’s not in the Wemby/LeBron tier of great prospects, but right below them in the Anthony Davis/Luka Dončić tier. That does warrant the term “generational”.
Flagg is ranked #1 on my big board (coming soon). I would expect him to be an All-NBA player at his peak.